Construction holds up against rates
David Uren, Economics correspondent |
THE construction industry is still booming as a result of infrastructure projects nationally.
Although home building has been hit by the rise in interest rates, the strength of the construction industry overall may force the Reserve Bank to upgrade its growth forecasts.
Private engineering work, dominated by the resources sector, leapt by 6.6 per cent in the March quarter, putting an end to concerns over the previous six months that the resources boom may be levelling off.
Public infrastructure rose by a healthy 2.2 per cent in the quarter, allowing for inflation.
Matthew Johnson, senior economist with finance broker ICAP, said the overhang of engineering projects waiting for a start was about three times the total built in 2007.
"If even half these projects are started, the pull on resources will be equivalent to about 2 per cent of GDP," he said.
This impetus to growth alone could be enough to push the Reserve Bank to raise rates again, he said.
The latest estimates put the amount of unfinished projects at $66 billion.
With mining profits set to double this year, non-residential construction would continue to support GDP growth for some time, ABN AMRO senior economist Felicity Emmett said.
The residential building sector had a weak quarter, with only 0.3 per cent growth, but it too has a growing pipeline of work. Projects yet to be completed or started amount to $10.6 billion.
CommSec chief economist Craig James said the order books for both residential and commercial building were 24 per cent ahead of their level a year ago.
"The gloom and doom reports on the housing sector are overplaying the situation," Mr James said. "More homes and apartments need to be built, given our rising population, and it appears that we are slowly rising to the challenge."
The construction industry's performance is the first of a series of reports that contribute to the GDP for the first three months of the year, which will be released next Wednesday.
A leading index compiled by Westpac, which attempts to forecast what will happen to GDP over the next three to nine months, suggests growth will ease from a long-term trend of 4.4 per cent to 3.3 per cent.
This is half the level reached in November last year, when consumer demand was surging, and is the lowest in five years.
The index is compiled using figures for money supply,

